[
 {
  "title": "Debt default",
  "stat": "**15** countries hit this in most futures · **15.5** expected across all 30",
  "fields": [
   {
    "label": "What sets it off",
    "text": "Debt passes 100% of GDP, or 85% while reserves are also running out. Lenders stop rolling over its bonds."
   },
   {
    "label": "It has happened before",
    "text": "Sri Lanka defaulted on its foreign debt in 2022, the first default in its history. Lebanon defaulted in 2020.",
    "quote": true
   },
   {
    "label": "Most exposed · share of futures with at least one",
    "format": "percent",
    "empty": "Rare under these assumptions.",
    "bars": [
     {
      "name": "Jammu & Kashmir",
      "value": 1
     },
     {
      "name": "Punjab",
      "value": 1
     },
     {
      "name": "Himachal Pradesh",
      "value": 1
     },
     {
      "name": "Sikkim",
      "value": 1
     },
     {
      "name": "Arunachal Pradesh",
      "value": 1
     }
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "title": "Currency collapse",
  "stat": "**14** countries hit this in most futures · **13.1** expected across all 30",
  "fields": [
   {
    "label": "What sets it off",
    "text": "Reserves fall below one month of imports, so the country can no longer pay for fuel, fertiliser or medicine from abroad."
   },
   {
    "label": "It has happened before",
    "text": "In early 2023 Pakistan's central-bank reserves fell to roughly three weeks of imports before it reached a new IMF deal.",
    "quote": true
   },
   {
    "label": "Most exposed · share of futures with at least one",
    "format": "percent",
    "empty": "Rare under these assumptions.",
    "bars": [
     {
      "name": "Manipur",
      "value": 0.995
     },
     {
      "name": "Bihar",
      "value": 0.99
     },
     {
      "name": "Nagaland",
      "value": 0.99
     },
     {
      "name": "Mizoram",
      "value": 0.988
     },
     {
      "name": "Sikkim",
      "value": 0.983
     }
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "title": "Food emergency",
  "stat": "**1** country hits this in most futures · **2.5** expected across all 30",
  "fields": [
   {
    "label": "What sets it off",
    "text": "A failed monsoon hits a country that cannot grow enough food and cannot buy it, because neighbours restrict grain sales or reserves are thin."
   },
   {
    "label": "It has happened before",
    "text": "After the droughts of 1965 and 1966, India depended on shipments of American wheat, a period remembered as living 'ship to mouth'.",
    "quote": true
   },
   {
    "label": "Most exposed · share of futures with at least one",
    "format": "percent",
    "empty": "Rare under these assumptions.",
    "bars": [
     {
      "name": "Delhi",
      "value": 0.767
     },
     {
      "name": "Himachal Pradesh",
      "value": 0.395
     },
     {
      "name": "Jharkhand",
      "value": 0.297
     },
     {
      "name": "Meghalaya",
      "value": 0.247
     },
     {
      "name": "Goa",
      "value": 0.228
     }
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "title": "Water conflict",
  "stat": "**0** countries hit this in most futures · **1.3** expected across all 30",
  "fields": [
   {
    "label": "What sets it off",
    "text": "In a drought, a hostile upstream neighbour holds back river water from a country that relies on it."
   },
   {
    "label": "It has happened before",
    "text": "The Cauvery dispute already turns violent in dry years: Bengaluru saw riots in 2016 after the Supreme Court ordered Karnataka to release water to Tamil Nadu.",
    "quote": true
   },
   {
    "label": "Most exposed · share of futures with at least one",
    "format": "percent",
    "empty": "Rare under these assumptions.",
    "bars": [
     {
      "name": "Telangana",
      "value": 0.225
     },
     {
      "name": "Andhra Pradesh",
      "value": 0.19
     },
     {
      "name": "Haryana",
      "value": 0.182
     },
     {
      "name": "West Bengal",
      "value": 0.172
     },
     {
      "name": "Tamil Nadu",
      "value": 0.122
     }
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "title": "Mass unrest",
  "stat": "**0** countries hit this in most futures · **0.1** expected across all 30",
  "fields": [
   {
    "label": "What sets it off",
    "text": "Political stability, which falls with weak growth, food shortages and earlier crises, drops so low that the government falls."
   },
   {
    "label": "It has happened before",
    "text": "Sri Lanka's 2022 protests forced its president to flee and resign. Bangladesh's government fell to a protest movement in 2024.",
    "quote": true
   },
   {
    "label": "Most exposed · share of futures with at least one",
    "format": "percent",
    "empty": "Rare under these assumptions.",
    "bars": [
     {
      "name": "Bihar",
      "value": 0.043
     },
     {
      "name": "Manipur",
      "value": 0.022
     },
     {
      "name": "Nagaland",
      "value": 0.02
     }
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "title": "Border war",
  "stat": "**0** countries hit this in most futures · **1.8** expected across all 30",
  "fields": [
   {
    "label": "What sets it off",
    "text": "Countries on the Pakistan, China or Myanmar borders face a small yearly risk of fighting. About a third of clashes escalate into war."
   },
   {
    "label": "It has happened before",
    "text": "India fought Pakistan at Kargil in 1999 and clashed with China in the Galwan Valley in 2020. A small new country would face them alone.",
    "quote": true
   },
   {
    "label": "Most exposed · share of futures with at least one",
    "format": "percent",
    "empty": "Rare under these assumptions.",
    "bars": [
     {
      "name": "Jammu & Kashmir",
      "value": 0.39
     },
     {
      "name": "Arunachal Pradesh",
      "value": 0.21
     },
     {
      "name": "Gujarat",
      "value": 0.18
     },
     {
      "name": "Manipur",
      "value": 0.175
     },
     {
      "name": "Punjab",
      "value": 0.158
     }
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]