A thought experiment
If Every Indian State Became Its Own Country, Which Ones Would Last?
Imagine India splitting into 30 independent nations overnight. Money stops flowing between states, every border gets a customs post, and each new country has to pay for its own army. We simulated 400 possible futures over 20 years to see which countries hold together and which hit a crisis they can't absorb.
How viable is each new country?
Each square is a former state, placed roughly where it sits on the map. The color shows the typical viability score in year 20 across all simulated futures. Select a square to find that country in the other charts.
Viability scoreLow scores mean heavy debt, thin reserves, weak growth or unrest.
205080
View the data
| Name | Viability in year 20 |
|---|---|
| Jammu & Kashmir | 34 |
| Punjab | 52 |
| Himachal Pradesh | 52 |
| Uttarakhand | 54 |
| Sikkim | 41 |
| Arunachal Pradesh | 35 |
| Rajasthan | 51 |
| Haryana | 80 |
| Delhi | 73 |
| Uttar Pradesh | 55 |
| Bihar | 39 |
| Assam | 58 |
| Nagaland | 35 |
| Gujarat | 82 |
| Madhya Pradesh | 63 |
| Chhattisgarh | 74 |
| Jharkhand | 58 |
| West Bengal | 71 |
| Meghalaya | 49 |
| Manipur | 34 |
| Maharashtra | 92 |
| Telangana | 83 |
| Odisha | 79 |
| Tripura | 48 |
| Mizoram | 34 |
| Goa | 74 |
| Karnataka | 92 |
| Andhra Pradesh | 75 |
| Kerala | 77 |
| Tamil Nadu | 85 |
13 of 30new countries get through 20 years without a major crisis in most futures
9hit a crisis within five years in most futures
0 of 30end up richer than if India had stayed whole
400simulated futures, each 20 years long
The first shock: the money stops moving
Inside India, richer states pay more in taxes than they get back from New Delhi, and the difference pays for schools, roads and salaries in poorer ones. Independence ends that on the first day. Delhi and Maharashtra suddenly keep money they used to send away. Bihar and the small Himalayan and Northeastern states lose a large part of their budgets.
Who gains and who loses when transfers end
Approximate net flow between each state and the central government, as a share of the state's economy. Positive means the state paid in more than it received.
View the data
| name | Net flow, % of state GDP |
|---|---|
| Delhi | +9% |
| Maharashtra | +6% |
| Karnataka | +5% |
| Haryana | +3.5% |
| Gujarat | +3.5% |
| Telangana | +3% |
| Tamil Nadu | +3% |
| Goa | +1.5% |
| Kerala | −0.5% |
| Punjab | −2% |
| Andhra Pradesh | −2.5% |
| Uttarakhand | −3% |
| West Bengal | −3% |
| Rajasthan | −3.5% |
| Odisha | −4% |
| Madhya Pradesh | −4.5% |
| Chhattisgarh | −4.5% |
| Uttar Pradesh | −5% |
| Jharkhand | −6% |
| Himachal Pradesh | −9% |
| Assam | −9% |
| Bihar | −10% |
| Meghalaya | −16% |
| Jammu & Kashmir | −18% |
| Tripura | −18% |
| Sikkim | −20% |
| Manipur | −24% |
| Nagaland | −26% |
| Mizoram | −28% |
| Arunachal Pradesh | −30% |
How long each country lasts
Countries rarely disappear. They hit a crisis: a debt default, a currency collapse, a food emergency, a fight over river water, mass unrest or a border war. The chart below tracks, for each new country, the share of simulated futures in which it has not yet had one.
Under these assumptions, 13 of 30 new countries get through 20 years without a major crisis in most futures, and 9 hit one within five years in most futures. The strongest are Maharashtra, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. The weakest are Manipur, Mizoram and Jammu & Kashmir. None of 30 end up richer than if India had stayed together.
Share of futures with no major crisis yet
Each line is one country. Hover over or tap a line to follow it; the color shows how many of its futures are still crisis-free in year 20.
Crisis-free in year 20
0%100%
View the data
| Year | Jammu & Kashmir | Punjab | Himachal Pradesh | Uttarakhand | Sikkim | Arunachal Pradesh | Rajasthan | Haryana | Delhi | Uttar Pradesh | Bihar | Assam | Nagaland | Gujarat | Madhya Pradesh | Chhattisgarh | Jharkhand | West Bengal | Meghalaya | Manipur | Maharashtra | Telangana | Odisha | Tripura | Mizoram | Goa | Karnataka | Andhra Pradesh | Kerala | Tamil Nadu |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 1 | 95% | 98% | 94% | 100% | 96% | 95% | 98% | 98% | 93% | 100% | 99% | 99% | 96% | 99% | 100% | 100% | 98% | 98% | 97% | 98% | 100% | 98% | 100% | 97% | 97% | 96% | 100% | 96% | 98% | 98% |
| 2 | 0% | 95% | 91% | 99% | 93% | 0% | 96% | 96% | 85% | 100% | 97% | 98% | 0% | 96% | 100% | 100% | 96% | 96% | 93% | 81% | 100% | 93% | 100% | 95% | 34% | 95% | 100% | 95% | 96% | 96% |
| 3 | 0% | 93% | 83% | 99% | 25% | 0% | 94% | 94% | 78% | 100% | 96% | 97% | 0% | 95% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 94% | 90% | 0% | 100% | 91% | 100% | 82% | 0% | 93% | 100% | 93% | 95% | 96% |
| 4 | 0% | 91% | 67% | 98% | 0% | 0% | 92% | 94% | 73% | 100% | 90% | 96% | 0% | 93% | 100% | 100% | 94% | 94% | 48% | 0% | 100% | 91% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 92% | 100% | 92% | 93% | 95% |
| 5 | 0% | 88% | 3% | 97% | 0% | 0% | 88% | 92% | 66% | 100% | 53% | 96% | 0% | 91% | 100% | 100% | 92% | 92% | 1% | 0% | 100% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 90% | 100% | 91% | 93% | 95% |
| 6 | 0% | 77% | 0% | 94% | 0% | 0% | 83% | 90% | 59% | 99% | 11% | 94% | 0% | 89% | 100% | 100% | 91% | 91% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 88% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 89% | 100% | 90% | 92% | 93% |
| 7 | 0% | 63% | 0% | 91% | 0% | 0% | 76% | 89% | 55% | 96% | 2% | 92% | 0% | 88% | 100% | 100% | 88% | 89% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 87% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 88% | 100% | 88% | 91% | 92% |
| 8 | 0% | 45% | 0% | 85% | 0% | 0% | 61% | 88% | 51% | 91% | 0% | 89% | 0% | 88% | 98% | 100% | 85% | 89% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 86% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 86% | 100% | 88% | 90% | 92% |
| 9 | 0% | 28% | 0% | 78% | 0% | 0% | 46% | 87% | 47% | 85% | 0% | 85% | 0% | 86% | 96% | 100% | 82% | 88% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 85% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 86% | 100% | 87% | 89% | 91% |
| 10 | 0% | 15% | 0% | 66% | 0% | 0% | 30% | 86% | 45% | 76% | 0% | 77% | 0% | 84% | 94% | 100% | 80% | 88% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 84% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 85% | 100% | 87% | 89% | 91% |
| 11 | 0% | 10% | 0% | 56% | 0% | 0% | 20% | 86% | 42% | 66% | 0% | 72% | 0% | 83% | 91% | 100% | 76% | 88% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 84% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 84% | 100% | 86% | 88% | 91% |
| 12 | 0% | 5% | 0% | 45% | 0% | 0% | 12% | 85% | 40% | 55% | 0% | 61% | 0% | 80% | 87% | 100% | 72% | 87% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 82% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 84% | 100% | 85% | 88% | 91% |
| 13 | 0% | 2% | 0% | 38% | 0% | 0% | 7% | 85% | 35% | 48% | 0% | 52% | 0% | 80% | 84% | 100% | 69% | 87% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 82% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 82% | 100% | 84% | 87% | 90% |
| 14 | 0% | 1% | 0% | 30% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 85% | 33% | 40% | 0% | 45% | 0% | 79% | 80% | 99% | 65% | 87% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 81% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 82% | 100% | 84% | 87% | 90% |
| 15 | 0% | 1% | 0% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 84% | 30% | 31% | 0% | 38% | 0% | 78% | 79% | 99% | 62% | 86% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 81% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 82% | 100% | 83% | 86% | 89% |
| 16 | 0% | 1% | 0% | 19% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 83% | 29% | 26% | 0% | 29% | 0% | 77% | 75% | 99% | 59% | 86% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 80% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 81% | 100% | 83% | 85% | 89% |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 82% | 27% | 21% | 0% | 23% | 0% | 76% | 72% | 99% | 56% | 85% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 80% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 80% | 100% | 82% | 84% | 89% |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 82% | 24% | 17% | 0% | 18% | 0% | 75% | 70% | 99% | 53% | 84% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 79% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 79% | 100% | 82% | 84% | 89% |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 82% | 23% | 15% | 0% | 15% | 0% | 74% | 66% | 99% | 52% | 83% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 78% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 78% | 100% | 82% | 83% | 88% |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 81% | 22% | 12% | 0% | 13% | 0% | 73% | 63% | 98% | 48% | 82% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 78% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 76% | 100% | 81% | 83% | 88% |
Six ways a new country breaks
The model watches for six kinds of crisis. Each one has a rule that sets it off, and each has happened to real countries in South Asia within living memory. The lists show which new countries hit each crisis most often under these assumptions. Select a country to find it in the other charts.
Debt default
15 countries hit this in most futures · 15.5 expected across all 30
- What sets it off
- Debt passes 100% of GDP, or 85% while reserves are also running out. Lenders stop rolling over its bonds.
- It has happened before
- Sri Lanka defaulted on its foreign debt in 2022, the first default in its history. Lebanon defaulted in 2020.
- Most exposed · share of futures with at least one
Currency collapse
14 countries hit this in most futures · 13.1 expected across all 30
- What sets it off
- Reserves fall below one month of imports, so the country can no longer pay for fuel, fertiliser or medicine from abroad.
- It has happened before
- In early 2023 Pakistan's central-bank reserves fell to roughly three weeks of imports before it reached a new IMF deal.
- Most exposed · share of futures with at least one
Food emergency
1 country hits this in most futures · 2.5 expected across all 30
- What sets it off
- A failed monsoon hits a country that cannot grow enough food and cannot buy it, because neighbours restrict grain sales or reserves are thin.
- It has happened before
- After the droughts of 1965 and 1966, India depended on shipments of American wheat, a period remembered as living 'ship to mouth'.
- Most exposed · share of futures with at least one
Water conflict
0 countries hit this in most futures · 1.3 expected across all 30
- What sets it off
- In a drought, a hostile upstream neighbour holds back river water from a country that relies on it.
- It has happened before
- The Cauvery dispute already turns violent in dry years: Bengaluru saw riots in 2016 after the Supreme Court ordered Karnataka to release water to Tamil Nadu.
- Most exposed · share of futures with at least one
Mass unrest
0 countries hit this in most futures · 0.1 expected across all 30
- What sets it off
- Political stability, which falls with weak growth, food shortages and earlier crises, drops so low that the government falls.
- It has happened before
- Sri Lanka's 2022 protests forced its president to flee and resign. Bangladesh's government fell to a protest movement in 2024.
- Most exposed · share of futures with at least one
Border war
0 countries hit this in most futures · 1.8 expected across all 30
- What sets it off
- Countries on the Pakistan, China or Myanmar borders face a small yearly risk of fighting. About a third of clashes escalate into war.
- It has happened before
- India fought Pakistan at Kargil in 1999 and clashed with China in the Galwan Valley in 2020. A small new country would face them alone.
- Most exposed · share of futures with at least one
One possible future
The averages hide how messy any single future would be. Here is one run of the simulation, year by year: every crisis, why it happened and what came next, along with the diplomacy, trade deals and migration around it.
71major crises17countries hit5water talks collapse6customs unions7migration waves
Year 1Monsoon 8% above normal
Diplomacy
Water talks between Jharkhand and West Bengal collapse
Relations soured almost as soon as the new borders went up. Without a treaty, West Bengal has no guaranteed share of the Damodar in a dry year, and Jharkhand is under pressure from its own farmers to keep more.
What happens next: Both sides post police at the river's barrages. The next drought will test it.
Diplomacy
Water talks between Maharashtra and Telangana collapse
Relations soured almost as soon as the new borders went up. Without a treaty, Telangana has no guaranteed share of the Godavari in a dry year, and Maharashtra is under pressure from its own farmers to keep more.
What happens next: Both sides post police at the river's barrages. The next drought will test it.
Diplomacy
Water talks between Karnataka and Telangana collapse
Relations soured almost as soon as the new borders went up. Without a treaty, Telangana has no guaranteed share of the Krishna in a dry year, and Karnataka is under pressure from its own farmers to keep more.
What happens next: Both sides post police at the river's barrages. The next drought will test it.
A quiet year.
Year 2Monsoon 14% above normal
Debt default
Jammu & Kashmir defaults on its debt
Debt reached 109% of GDP, and lenders stopped buying its bonds. The root cause: the central transfers it lost at independence were worth 18% of its economy, and defence alone takes about 5.4% of GDP.
What happens next: Creditors accept a 40% write-down in exchange for spending cuts. The economy shrinks 0.5% this year, and borrowing stays expensive for years.
Debt default
Arunachal Pradesh defaults on its debt
Debt reached 107% of GDP, and lenders stopped buying its bonds. The root cause: the central transfers it lost at independence were worth 30% of its economy, and defence alone takes about 3.6% of GDP.
What happens next: Creditors accept a 40% write-down in exchange for spending cuts. The economy grows just 0.3% this year, and borrowing stays expensive for years.
Debt default
Nagaland defaults on its debt
Debt reached 107% of GDP, and lenders stopped buying its bonds. The root cause: the central transfers it lost at independence were worth 26% of its economy, and defence alone takes about 2.8% of GDP.
What happens next: Creditors accept a 40% write-down in exchange for spending cuts. The economy shrinks 1.7% this year, and borrowing stays expensive for years.
A quiet year.
Year 3Monsoon 10% below normal · drought in 10 countries
Trade
Haryana and Uttar Pradesh form a customs union
After 3 years of queues at the new border posts, the two drop tariffs and inspections. Uttar Pradesh gets a steady supply of grain from Haryana's farms.
What happens next: Trade between them recovers toward what it was inside India, though the rest of the old single market stays split.
Trade
Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra form a customs union
After 3 years of queues at the new border posts, the two drop tariffs and inspections. The bigger prize is for Chhattisgarh: duty-free access to Maharashtra's ports.
What happens next: Trade between them recovers toward what it was inside India, though the rest of the old single market stays split.
Diplomacy
Water talks between Chhattisgarh and Odisha collapse
Relations have been sliding since independence. Without a treaty, Odisha has no guaranteed share of the Mahanadi in a dry year, and Chhattisgarh is under pressure from its own farmers to keep more.
What happens next: Both sides post police at the river's barrages. The next drought will test it.
Trade
Odisha and Andhra Pradesh form a customs union
After 3 years of queues at the new border posts, the two drop tariffs and inspections. Odisha gets a steady supply of grain from Andhra Pradesh's farms.
What happens next: Trade between them recovers toward what it was inside India, though the rest of the old single market stays split.
Migration
Young people start leaving Jammu & Kashmir
With its viability score down to 34, workers head for Punjab, which scores 66. Inside India they could move freely; now they need work permits.
What happens next: Money sent home helps families, but the country loses the workers it needs to recover.
Debt default
Sikkim defaults on its debt
Debt reached 103% of GDP and reserves covered only 0.9 months of imports, and lenders stopped buying its bonds. The root cause: the central transfers it lost at independence were worth 20% of its economy, and defence alone takes about 3.3% of GDP.
What happens next: Creditors accept a 40% write-down in exchange for spending cuts. The economy shrinks 2.5% this year, and borrowing stays expensive for years.
Debt default
Manipur defaults on its debt
Debt reached 110% of GDP, and lenders stopped buying its bonds. The root cause: the central transfers it lost at independence were worth 24% of its economy, and defence alone takes about 2.8% of GDP.
What happens next: Creditors accept a 40% write-down in exchange for spending cuts. The economy grows just 0.1% this year, and borrowing stays expensive for years.
Debt default
Mizoram defaults on its debt
Debt reached 117% of GDP, and lenders stopped buying its bonds. The root cause: the central transfers it lost at independence were worth 28% of its economy, and defence alone takes about 2.8% of GDP.
What happens next: Creditors accept a 40% write-down in exchange for spending cuts. The economy shrinks 4.3% this year, and borrowing stays expensive for years.
A quiet year.
Year 4Monsoon near normal · drought in Assam
Migration
Young people start leaving Nagaland
With its viability score down to 28, workers head for Assam, which scores 52. Inside India they could move freely; now they need work permits.
What happens next: Money sent home helps families, but the country loses the workers it needs to recover.
Debt default
Tripura defaults on its debt
Debt reached 106% of GDP, and lenders stopped buying its bonds. The root cause: the central transfers it lost at independence were worth 18% of its economy, and growth has averaged only 2.2% a year lately.
What happens next: Creditors accept a 40% write-down in exchange for spending cuts. The economy shrinks 0.1% this year, and borrowing stays expensive for years.
Migration
Young people start leaving Mizoram
With its viability score down to 33, workers head for Tripura, which scores 53. Inside India they could move freely; now they need work permits.
What happens next: Money sent home helps families, but the country loses the workers it needs to recover.
A quiet year.
Year 5Monsoon 20% above normal
Debt default
Jammu & Kashmir defaults on its debt
Debt reached 105% of GDP and reserves covered only 0.0 months of imports, and lenders stopped buying its bonds. The root cause: the central transfers it lost at independence were worth 18% of its economy, and defence alone takes about 5.4% of GDP. It is the country's second major crisis since independence.
What happens next: Creditors accept a 40% write-down in exchange for spending cuts. The economy grows just 0.0% this year, and borrowing stays expensive for years.
Debt default
Himachal Pradesh defaults on its debt
Debt reached 102% of GDP, and lenders stopped buying its bonds. The root cause: the central transfers it lost at independence were worth 9% of its economy, and every export has to cross a neighbour's border.
What happens next: Creditors accept a 40% write-down in exchange for spending cuts. The economy grows just 2.3% this year, and borrowing stays expensive for years.
Debt default
Arunachal Pradesh defaults on its debt
Debt reached 108% of GDP, and lenders stopped buying its bonds. The root cause: the central transfers it lost at independence were worth 30% of its economy, and defence alone takes about 3.6% of GDP. It is the country's second major crisis since independence.
What happens next: Creditors accept a 40% write-down in exchange for spending cuts. The economy grows just 1.1% this year, and borrowing stays expensive for years.
Debt default
Nagaland defaults on its debt
Debt reached 104% of GDP and reserves covered only 1.1 months of imports, and lenders stopped buying its bonds. The root cause: the central transfers it lost at independence were worth 26% of its economy, and defence alone takes about 2.8% of GDP. It is the country's second major crisis since independence.
What happens next: Creditors accept a 40% write-down in exchange for spending cuts. The economy grows just 0.9% this year, and borrowing stays expensive for years.
Debt default
Meghalaya defaults on its debt
Debt reached 105% of GDP, and lenders stopped buying its bonds. The root cause: the central transfers it lost at independence were worth 16% of its economy, and every export has to cross a neighbour's border.
What happens next: Creditors accept a 40% write-down in exchange for spending cuts. The economy grows just 2.7% this year, and borrowing stays expensive for years.
A quiet year.
Year 6Monsoon 19% above normal
Diplomacy
Water talks between Arunachal Pradesh and Assam collapse
Relations have been sliding since independence. Without a treaty, Assam has no guaranteed share of the Brahmaputra in a dry year, and Arunachal Pradesh is under pressure from its own farmers to keep more.
What happens next: Both sides post police at the river's barrages. The next drought will test it.
Debt default
Sikkim defaults on its debt
Debt reached 94% of GDP and reserves covered only 0.0 months of imports, and lenders stopped buying its bonds. The root cause: the central transfers it lost at independence were worth 20% of its economy, and defence alone takes about 3.3% of GDP. It is the country's second major crisis since independence.
What happens next: Creditors accept a 40% write-down in exchange for spending cuts. The economy shrinks 0.1% this year, and borrowing stays expensive for years.
Debt default
Bihar defaults on its debt
Debt reached 100% of GDP, and lenders stopped buying its bonds. The root cause: the central transfers it lost at independence were worth 10% of its economy, and every export has to cross a neighbour's border.
What happens next: Creditors accept a 40% write-down in exchange for spending cuts. The economy grows just 1.2% this year, and borrowing stays expensive for years.
Debt default
Mizoram defaults on its debt
Debt reached 105% of GDP and reserves covered only 0.0 months of imports, and lenders stopped buying its bonds. The root cause: the central transfers it lost at independence were worth 28% of its economy, and defence alone takes about 2.8% of GDP. It is the country's second major crisis since independence.
What happens next: Creditors accept a 40% write-down in exchange for spending cuts. The economy shrinks 0.9% this year, and borrowing stays expensive for years.
A quiet year.
Year 7Monsoon 6% below normal
Trade
Karnataka and Goa form a customs union
After 7 years of queues at the new border posts, the two drop tariffs and inspections between them.
What happens next: Trade between them recovers toward what it was inside India, though the rest of the old single market stays split.
Debt default
Manipur defaults on its debt
Debt reached 104% of GDP and reserves covered only 0.7 months of imports, and lenders stopped buying its bonds. The root cause: the central transfers it lost at independence were worth 24% of its economy, and defence alone takes about 2.8% of GDP. It is the country's second major crisis since independence.
What happens next: Creditors accept a 40% write-down in exchange for spending cuts. The economy shrinks 0.9% this year, and borrowing stays expensive for years.
Border clash
Skirmishes on Mizoram's Myanmar border
A short exchange of fire that stops short of war.
What happens next: Extra defence spending and nervous investors cost about 3 points of growth this year.
A quiet year.
Year 8Monsoon 8% below normal · drought in 9 countries
Debt default
Jammu & Kashmir defaults on its debt
Debt reached 94% of GDP and reserves covered only 0.0 months of imports, and lenders stopped buying its bonds. The root cause: the central transfers it lost at independence were worth 18% of its economy, and defence alone takes about 5.4% of GDP. It is the country's third major crisis since independence.
What happens next: Creditors accept a 40% write-down in exchange for spending cuts. The economy shrinks 0.1% this year, and borrowing stays expensive for years.
Border clash
Skirmishes on Sikkim's China border
A short exchange of fire that stops short of war.
What happens next: Extra defence spending and nervous investors cost about 3 points of growth this year.
Migration
Young people start leaving Sikkim
With its viability score down to 32, workers head for West Bengal, which scores 76. Inside India they could move freely; now they need work permits.
What happens next: Money sent home helps families, but the country loses the workers it needs to recover.
Debt default
Arunachal Pradesh defaults on its debt
Debt reached 100% of GDP and reserves covered only 0.0 months of imports, and lenders stopped buying its bonds. The root cause: the central transfers it lost at independence were worth 30% of its economy, and defence alone takes about 3.6% of GDP. It is the country's third major crisis since independence.
What happens next: Creditors accept a 40% write-down in exchange for spending cuts. The economy shrinks 2.7% this year, and borrowing stays expensive for years.
Debt default
Assam defaults on its debt
Debt reached 93% of GDP and reserves covered only 1.2 months of imports, and lenders stopped buying its bonds. The root cause: the central transfers it lost at independence were worth 9% of its economy, and every export has to cross a neighbour's border.
What happens next: Creditors accept a 40% write-down in exchange for spending cuts. The economy grows just 1.4% this year, and borrowing stays expensive for years.
Debt default
Nagaland defaults on its debt
Debt reached 91% of GDP and reserves covered only 0.0 months of imports, and lenders stopped buying its bonds. The root cause: the central transfers it lost at independence were worth 26% of its economy, and defence alone takes about 2.8% of GDP. It is the country's third major crisis since independence.
What happens next: Creditors accept a 40% write-down in exchange for spending cuts. The economy shrinks 0.6% this year, and borrowing stays expensive for years.
Water conflict
Telangana and Maharashtra clash over the Godavari
In a drought year, Maharashtra kept more of the Godavari for its own farms. Telangana depends on upstream rivers for about 30% of its water, and there is no longer a national court to referee.
What happens next: Farmers block border crossings and crops fail in the downstream districts. The economy grows just 0.8% this year.
A quiet year.
Year 9Monsoon near normal
Currency collapse
Himachal Pradesh's currency collapses
Foreign-exchange reserves fell to 1.0 months of imports, because it earns too little from exports to pay for what it imports. Fuel, fertiliser and medicine run short and prices jump. It is the country's second major crisis since independence.
What happens next: An emergency loan restores about two and a half months of reserves but adds roughly 8% of GDP to its debt. The economy grows just 3.8% this year.
Debt default
Sikkim defaults on its debt
Debt reached 87% of GDP and reserves covered only 0.5 months of imports, and lenders stopped buying its bonds. The root cause: the central transfers it lost at independence were worth 20% of its economy, and defence alone takes about 3.3% of GDP. It is the country's third major crisis since independence.
What happens next: Creditors accept a 40% write-down in exchange for spending cuts. The economy shrinks 0.1% this year, and borrowing stays expensive for years.
Migration
Young people start leaving Arunachal Pradesh
With its viability score down to 32, workers head for Assam, which scores 53. Inside India they could move freely; now they need work permits.
What happens next: Money sent home helps families, but the country loses the workers it needs to recover.
Debt default
Rajasthan defaults on its debt
Debt reached 96% of GDP and reserves covered only 1.2 months of imports, and lenders stopped buying its bonds. The root cause: losing transfers worth 3.5% of its economy forced years of deficits, and defence alone takes about 2.7% of GDP.
What happens next: Creditors accept a 40% write-down in exchange for spending cuts. The economy grows just 1.7% this year, and borrowing stays expensive for years.
Currency collapse
Bihar's currency collapses
Foreign-exchange reserves fell to 0.4 months of imports, as money sent home by workers in neighbouring countries dried up. Fuel, fertiliser and medicine run short and prices jump. It is the country's second major crisis since independence.
What happens next: An emergency loan restores about two and a half months of reserves but adds roughly 8% of GDP to its debt. The economy grows just 0.1% this year.
Migration
Young people start leaving Manipur
With its viability score down to 35, workers head for Assam, which scores 51. Inside India they could move freely; now they need work permits.
What happens next: Money sent home helps families, but the country loses the workers it needs to recover.
Debt default
Mizoram defaults on its debt
Debt reached 101% of GDP and reserves covered only 0.0 months of imports, and lenders stopped buying its bonds. The root cause: the central transfers it lost at independence were worth 28% of its economy, and defence alone takes about 2.8% of GDP. It is the country's third major crisis since independence.
What happens next: Creditors accept a 40% write-down in exchange for spending cuts. The economy shrinks 0.6% this year, and borrowing stays expensive for years.
A quiet year.
Year 10Monsoon 18% above normal
Debt default
Punjab defaults on its debt
Debt reached 103% of GDP and reserves covered only 1.6 months of imports, and lenders stopped buying its bonds. The root cause: losing transfers worth 2% of its economy forced years of deficits, and defence alone takes about 2.7% of GDP.
What happens next: Creditors accept a 40% write-down in exchange for spending cuts. The economy grows just 1.1% this year, and borrowing stays expensive for years.
Border war
Gujarat is drawn into a border war
Clashes on the Pakistan border escalate into weeks of fighting. As a small independent country, Gujarat has no larger army to call on; its defence budget was already about 2.7% of GDP.
What happens next: Defence spending jumps, foreign investors pull out, and the economy grows just 3.1% this year.
Currency collapse
Manipur's currency collapses
Foreign-exchange reserves fell to 0.0 months of imports, because it earns too little from exports to pay for what it imports. Fuel, fertiliser and medicine run short and prices jump. It is the country's third major crisis since independence.
What happens next: An emergency loan restores about two and a half months of reserves but adds roughly 8% of GDP to its debt. The economy grows just 3.0% this year.
A quiet year.
Year 11Monsoon near normal
Currency collapse
Jammu & Kashmir's currency collapses
Foreign-exchange reserves fell to 0.0 months of imports, because it earns too little from exports to pay for what it imports. Fuel, fertiliser and medicine run short and prices jump. It is the country's fourth major crisis since independence.
What happens next: An emergency loan restores about two and a half months of reserves but adds roughly 8% of GDP to its debt. The economy grows just 1.4% this year.
Debt default
Arunachal Pradesh defaults on its debt
Debt reached 88% of GDP and reserves covered only 0.0 months of imports, and lenders stopped buying its bonds. The root cause: the central transfers it lost at independence were worth 30% of its economy, and defence alone takes about 3.6% of GDP. It is the country's fourth major crisis since independence.
What happens next: Creditors accept a 40% write-down in exchange for spending cuts. The economy grows just 0.6% this year, and borrowing stays expensive for years.
Currency collapse
Nagaland's currency collapses
Foreign-exchange reserves fell to 0.0 months of imports, because it earns too little from exports to pay for what it imports. Fuel, fertiliser and medicine run short and prices jump. It is the country's fourth major crisis since independence.
What happens next: An emergency loan restores about two and a half months of reserves but adds roughly 8% of GDP to its debt. The economy shrinks 1.0% this year.
Debt default
Tripura defaults on its debt
Debt reached 100% of GDP and reserves covered only 1.4 months of imports, and lenders stopped buying its bonds. The root cause: the central transfers it lost at independence were worth 18% of its economy, and every export has to cross a neighbour's border. It is the country's second major crisis since independence.
What happens next: Creditors accept a 40% write-down in exchange for spending cuts. The economy grows just 1.4% this year, and borrowing stays expensive for years.
A quiet year.
Year 12Monsoon 11% below normal · drought in 9 countries
Currency collapse
Sikkim's currency collapses
Foreign-exchange reserves fell to 0.0 months of imports, after a drought forced costly food imports. Fuel, fertiliser and medicine run short and prices jump. It is the country's fourth major crisis since independence.
What happens next: An emergency loan restores about two and a half months of reserves but adds roughly 8% of GDP to its debt. The economy grows just 1.6% this year.
Food emergency
Drought brings a food emergency to Delhi
The monsoon over Delhi came in about 23% below normal. It grows only about 5% of the food it eats, and Haryana, its least friendly neighbour, has restricted grain exports.
What happens next: Rationing starts and food prices rise sharply. Stability falls and the economy grows just 2.8% this year.
Debt default
Bihar defaults on its debt
Debt reached 94% of GDP and reserves covered only 0.3 months of imports, and lenders stopped buying its bonds. The root cause: the central transfers it lost at independence were worth 10% of its economy, and every export has to cross a neighbour's border. It is the country's third major crisis since independence.
What happens next: Creditors accept a 40% write-down in exchange for spending cuts. The economy shrinks 1.0% this year, and borrowing stays expensive for years.
Debt default
Meghalaya defaults on its debt
Debt reached 97% of GDP and reserves covered only 1.4 months of imports, and lenders stopped buying its bonds. The root cause: the central transfers it lost at independence were worth 16% of its economy, and every export has to cross a neighbour's border. It is the country's second major crisis since independence.
What happens next: Creditors accept a 40% write-down in exchange for spending cuts. The economy grows just 0.4% this year, and borrowing stays expensive for years.
Currency collapse
Mizoram's currency collapses
Foreign-exchange reserves fell to 0.0 months of imports, because it earns too little from exports to pay for what it imports. Fuel, fertiliser and medicine run short and prices jump. It is the country's fourth major crisis since independence.
What happens next: An emergency loan restores about two and a half months of reserves but adds roughly 8% of GDP to its debt. The economy shrinks 1.2% this year.
A quiet year.
Year 13Monsoon near normal · drought in Rajasthan, Bihar, Karnataka
Debt default
Uttarakhand defaults on its debt
Debt reached 89% of GDP and reserves covered only 0.5 months of imports, and lenders stopped buying its bonds. The root cause: losing transfers worth 3% of its economy forced years of deficits, and every export has to cross a neighbour's border.
What happens next: Creditors accept a 40% write-down in exchange for spending cuts. The economy grows just 2.4% this year, and borrowing stays expensive for years.
Currency collapse
Rajasthan's currency collapses
Foreign-exchange reserves fell to 0.3 months of imports, after a drought forced costly food imports. Fuel, fertiliser and medicine run short and prices jump. It is the country's second major crisis since independence.
What happens next: An emergency loan restores about two and a half months of reserves but adds roughly 8% of GDP to its debt. The economy shrinks 0.8% this year.
Migration
Young people start leaving Bihar
With its viability score down to 32, workers head for West Bengal, which scores 76. Inside India they could move freely; now they need work permits.
What happens next: Money sent home helps families, but the country loses the workers it needs to recover.
Debt default
Manipur defaults on its debt
Debt reached 119% of GDP and reserves covered only 0.0 months of imports, and lenders stopped buying its bonds. The root cause: the central transfers it lost at independence were worth 24% of its economy, and defence alone takes about 2.8% of GDP. It is the country's fourth major crisis since independence.
What happens next: Creditors accept a 40% write-down in exchange for spending cuts. The economy shrinks 0.9% this year, and borrowing stays expensive for years.
A quiet year.
Year 14Monsoon 11% below normal · drought in 11 countries
Debt default
Jammu & Kashmir defaults on its debt
Debt reached 126% of GDP and reserves covered only 0.0 months of imports, and lenders stopped buying its bonds. The root cause: the central transfers it lost at independence were worth 18% of its economy, and defence alone takes about 5.4% of GDP. It is the country's fifth major crisis since independence.
What happens next: Creditors accept a 40% write-down in exchange for spending cuts. The economy shrinks 2.5% this year, and borrowing stays expensive for years.
Debt default
Himachal Pradesh defaults on its debt
Debt reached 101% of GDP and reserves covered only 1.2 months of imports, and lenders stopped buying its bonds. The root cause: the central transfers it lost at independence were worth 9% of its economy, and every export has to cross a neighbour's border. It is the country's third major crisis since independence.
What happens next: Creditors accept a 40% write-down in exchange for spending cuts. The economy grows just 0.5% this year, and borrowing stays expensive for years.
Currency collapse
Arunachal Pradesh's currency collapses
Foreign-exchange reserves fell to 0.0 months of imports, after a drought forced costly food imports. Fuel, fertiliser and medicine run short and prices jump. It is the country's fifth major crisis since independence.
What happens next: An emergency loan restores about two and a half months of reserves but adds roughly 8% of GDP to its debt. The economy grows just 0.2% this year.
Debt default
Nagaland defaults on its debt
Debt reached 114% of GDP and reserves covered only 0.0 months of imports, and lenders stopped buying its bonds. The root cause: the central transfers it lost at independence were worth 26% of its economy, and defence alone takes about 2.8% of GDP. It is the country's fifth major crisis since independence.
What happens next: Creditors accept a 40% write-down in exchange for spending cuts. The economy shrinks 2.8% this year, and borrowing stays expensive for years.
Currency collapse
Tripura's currency collapses
Foreign-exchange reserves fell to 0.4 months of imports, because it earns too little from exports to pay for what it imports. Fuel, fertiliser and medicine run short and prices jump. It is the country's third major crisis since independence.
What happens next: An emergency loan restores about two and a half months of reserves but adds roughly 8% of GDP to its debt. The economy shrinks 0.6% this year.
A quiet year.
Year 15Monsoon 16% above normal
Debt default
Sikkim defaults on its debt
Debt reached 99% of GDP and reserves covered only 0.0 months of imports, and lenders stopped buying its bonds. The root cause: the central transfers it lost at independence were worth 20% of its economy, and defence alone takes about 3.3% of GDP. It is the country's fifth major crisis since independence.
What happens next: Creditors accept a 40% write-down in exchange for spending cuts. The economy grows just 1.4% this year, and borrowing stays expensive for years.
Currency collapse
Bihar's currency collapses
Foreign-exchange reserves fell to 0.0 months of imports, because it earns too little from exports to pay for what it imports. Fuel, fertiliser and medicine run short and prices jump. It is the country's fourth major crisis since independence.
What happens next: An emergency loan restores about two and a half months of reserves but adds roughly 8% of GDP to its debt. The economy grows just 1.9% this year.
Debt default
Mizoram defaults on its debt
Debt reached 118% of GDP and reserves covered only 0.0 months of imports, and lenders stopped buying its bonds. The root cause: the central transfers it lost at independence were worth 28% of its economy, and defence alone takes about 2.8% of GDP. It is the country's fifth major crisis since independence.
What happens next: Creditors accept a 40% write-down in exchange for spending cuts. The economy shrinks 0.6% this year, and borrowing stays expensive for years.
A quiet year.
Year 16Monsoon near normal · drought in West Bengal
Trade
Maharashtra and Goa form a customs union
After 16 years of queues at the new border posts, the two drop tariffs and inspections between them.
What happens next: Trade between them recovers toward what it was inside India, though the rest of the old single market stays split.
Currency collapse
Punjab's currency collapses
Foreign-exchange reserves fell to 0.9 months of imports, because it earns too little from exports to pay for what it imports. Fuel, fertiliser and medicine run short and prices jump. It is the country's second major crisis since independence.
What happens next: An emergency loan restores about two and a half months of reserves but adds roughly 8% of GDP to its debt. The economy grows just 0.8% this year.
Currency collapse
Uttarakhand's currency collapses
Foreign-exchange reserves fell to 0.1 months of imports, because it earns too little from exports to pay for what it imports. Fuel, fertiliser and medicine run short and prices jump. It is the country's second major crisis since independence.
What happens next: An emergency loan restores about two and a half months of reserves but adds roughly 8% of GDP to its debt. The economy grows just 3.2% this year.
Debt default
Rajasthan defaults on its debt
Debt reached 89% of GDP and reserves covered only 0.1 months of imports, and lenders stopped buying its bonds. The root cause: losing transfers worth 3.5% of its economy forced years of deficits, and defence alone takes about 2.7% of GDP. It is the country's third major crisis since independence.
What happens next: Creditors accept a 40% write-down in exchange for spending cuts. The economy grows just 2.5% this year, and borrowing stays expensive for years.
Debt default
Manipur defaults on its debt
Debt reached 89% of GDP and reserves covered only 0.0 months of imports, and lenders stopped buying its bonds. The root cause: the central transfers it lost at independence were worth 24% of its economy, and defence alone takes about 2.8% of GDP. It is the country's fifth major crisis since independence.
What happens next: Creditors accept a 40% write-down in exchange for spending cuts. The economy shrinks 0.8% this year, and borrowing stays expensive for years.
A quiet year.
Year 17Monsoon 9% below normal · drought in 9 countries
Debt default
Jammu & Kashmir defaults on its debt
Debt reached 97% of GDP and reserves covered only 0.0 months of imports, and lenders stopped buying its bonds. The root cause: the central transfers it lost at independence were worth 18% of its economy, and defence alone takes about 5.4% of GDP. It is the country's sixth major crisis since independence.
What happens next: Creditors accept a 40% write-down in exchange for spending cuts. The economy shrinks 0.1% this year, and borrowing stays expensive for years.
Currency collapse
Himachal Pradesh's currency collapses
Foreign-exchange reserves fell to 0.0 months of imports, after a drought forced costly food imports. Fuel, fertiliser and medicine run short and prices jump. It is the country's fourth major crisis since independence.
What happens next: An emergency loan restores about two and a half months of reserves but adds roughly 8% of GDP to its debt. The economy grows just 1.1% this year.
Debt default
Arunachal Pradesh defaults on its debt
Debt reached 106% of GDP and reserves covered only 0.3 months of imports, and lenders stopped buying its bonds. The root cause: the central transfers it lost at independence were worth 30% of its economy, and defence alone takes about 3.6% of GDP. It is the country's sixth major crisis since independence.
What happens next: Creditors accept a 40% write-down in exchange for spending cuts. The economy shrinks 0.5% this year, and borrowing stays expensive for years.
Debt default
Nagaland defaults on its debt
Debt reached 88% of GDP and reserves covered only 0.0 months of imports, and lenders stopped buying its bonds. The root cause: the central transfers it lost at independence were worth 26% of its economy, and defence alone takes about 2.8% of GDP. It is the country's sixth major crisis since independence.
What happens next: Creditors accept a 40% write-down in exchange for spending cuts. The economy shrinks 3.0% this year, and borrowing stays expensive for years.
Currency collapse
Meghalaya's currency collapses
Foreign-exchange reserves fell to 0.7 months of imports, after a drought forced costly food imports. Fuel, fertiliser and medicine run short and prices jump. It is the country's third major crisis since independence.
What happens next: An emergency loan restores about two and a half months of reserves but adds roughly 8% of GDP to its debt. The economy shrinks 0.3% this year.
Border war
Manipur is drawn into a border war
Armed groups based across the Myanmar border launch a sustained offensive. As a small independent country, Manipur has no larger army to call on; its defence budget was already about 2.8% of GDP. It is the country's sixth major crisis since independence.
What happens next: Defence spending jumps, foreign investors pull out, and the economy shrinks 3.6% this year.
Water conflict
Telangana and Karnataka clash over the Krishna
In a drought year, Karnataka kept more of the Krishna for its own farms. Telangana depends on upstream rivers for about 30% of its water, and there is no longer a national court to referee. It is the country's second major crisis since independence.
What happens next: Farmers block border crossings and crops fail in the downstream districts. The economy grows just 2.1% this year.
A quiet year.
Year 18Monsoon near normal
Currency collapse
Sikkim's currency collapses
Foreign-exchange reserves fell to 0.0 months of imports, because it earns too little from exports to pay for what it imports. Fuel, fertiliser and medicine run short and prices jump. It is the country's sixth major crisis since independence.
What happens next: An emergency loan restores about two and a half months of reserves but adds roughly 8% of GDP to its debt. The economy grows just 1.8% this year.
Debt default
Bihar defaults on its debt
Debt reached 86% of GDP and reserves covered only 0.9 months of imports, and lenders stopped buying its bonds. The root cause: the central transfers it lost at independence were worth 10% of its economy, and growth has averaged only 2.5% a year lately. It is the country's fifth major crisis since independence.
What happens next: Creditors accept a 40% write-down in exchange for spending cuts. The economy grows just 0.6% this year, and borrowing stays expensive for years.
Currency collapse
Assam's currency collapses
Foreign-exchange reserves fell to 0.9 months of imports, because it earns too little from exports to pay for what it imports. Fuel, fertiliser and medicine run short and prices jump. It is the country's second major crisis since independence.
What happens next: An emergency loan restores about two and a half months of reserves but adds roughly 8% of GDP to its debt. The economy grows just 3.3% this year.
Debt default
Mizoram defaults on its debt
Debt reached 95% of GDP and reserves covered only 0.0 months of imports, and lenders stopped buying its bonds. The root cause: the central transfers it lost at independence were worth 28% of its economy, and defence alone takes about 2.8% of GDP. It is the country's sixth major crisis since independence.
What happens next: Creditors accept a 40% write-down in exchange for spending cuts. The economy shrinks 2.2% this year, and borrowing stays expensive for years.
A quiet year.
Year 19Monsoon 12% above normal
Currency collapse
Rajasthan's currency collapses
Foreign-exchange reserves fell to 0.5 months of imports, because it earns too little from exports to pay for what it imports. Fuel, fertiliser and medicine run short and prices jump. It is the country's fourth major crisis since independence.
What happens next: An emergency loan restores about two and a half months of reserves but adds roughly 8% of GDP to its debt. The economy grows just 3.6% this year.
A quiet year.
Year 20Monsoon 6% above normal
Trade
Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand form a customs union
After 20 years of queues at the new border posts, the two drop tariffs and inspections. Jharkhand gets a steady supply of grain from Uttar Pradesh's farms.
What happens next: Trade between them recovers toward what it was inside India, though the rest of the old single market stays split.
Currency collapse
Jammu & Kashmir's currency collapses
Foreign-exchange reserves fell to 0.0 months of imports, because it earns too little from exports to pay for what it imports. Fuel, fertiliser and medicine run short and prices jump. It is the country's sixth major crisis since independence.
What happens next: An emergency loan restores about two and a half months of reserves but adds roughly 8% of GDP to its debt. The economy grows just 3.1% this year.
Debt default
Punjab defaults on its debt
Debt reached 94% of GDP and reserves covered only 1.4 months of imports, and lenders stopped buying its bonds. The root cause: losing transfers worth 2% of its economy forced years of deficits, and defence alone takes about 2.7% of GDP. It is the country's third major crisis since independence.
What happens next: Creditors accept a 40% write-down in exchange for spending cuts. The economy grows just 2.0% this year, and borrowing stays expensive for years.
Currency collapse
Arunachal Pradesh's currency collapses
Foreign-exchange reserves fell to 0.1 months of imports, because it earns too little from exports to pay for what it imports. Fuel, fertiliser and medicine run short and prices jump. It is the country's sixth major crisis since independence.
What happens next: An emergency loan restores about two and a half months of reserves but adds roughly 8% of GDP to its debt. The economy grows just 1.2% this year.
Currency collapse
Nagaland's currency collapses
Foreign-exchange reserves fell to 0.0 months of imports, because it earns too little from exports to pay for what it imports. Fuel, fertiliser and medicine run short and prices jump. It is the country's sixth major crisis since independence.
What happens next: An emergency loan restores about two and a half months of reserves but adds roughly 8% of GDP to its debt. The economy shrinks 0.3% this year.
Debt default
Meghalaya defaults on its debt
Debt reached 93% of GDP and reserves covered only 1.3 months of imports, and lenders stopped buying its bonds. The root cause: the central transfers it lost at independence were worth 16% of its economy, and every export has to cross a neighbour's border. It is the country's fourth major crisis since independence.
What happens next: Creditors accept a 40% write-down in exchange for spending cuts. The economy grows just 1.7% this year, and borrowing stays expensive for years.
Currency collapse
Manipur's currency collapses
Foreign-exchange reserves fell to 0.0 months of imports, because it earns too little from exports to pay for what it imports. Fuel, fertiliser and medicine run short and prices jump. It is the country's sixth major crisis since independence.
What happens next: An emergency loan restores about two and a half months of reserves but adds roughly 8% of GDP to its debt. The economy grows just 0.6% this year.
A quiet year.
Every country, compared
Incomes are per person in today's dollars, as the median across all 400 futures. "Vs. staying in India" sets each country against a version of the same model where India stays whole.
Swipe the table sideways for more columns →
| Maharashtra | 0% | 20+ yrs | −4% | 92 | — | 126m | $3,730 | $11k |
| Odisha | 0% | 20+ yrs | −16% | 79 | — | 46m | $2,196 | $5,741 |
| Karnataka | 0% | 20+ yrs | −6% | 92 | — | 68m | $4,412 | $13k |
| Chhattisgarh | 2% | 20+ yrs | −25% | 74 | Currency collapse | 30m | $2,033 | $4,404 |
| Tamil Nadu | 12% | 20+ yrs | −14% | 85 | Water conflict | 77m | $4,286 | $13k |
| Kerala | 18% | 20+ yrs | −18% | 77 | Food emergency | 36m | $3,861 | $11k |
| West Bengal | 18% | 20+ yrs | −30% | 71 | Water conflict | 100m | $2,070 | $4,741 |
| Haryana | 19% | 20+ yrs | −22% | 80 | Water conflict | 30m | $4,433 | $10k |
| Andhra Pradesh | 19% | 20+ yrs | −24% | 75 | Water conflict | 54m | $3,222 | $8,061 |
| Telangana | 23% | 20+ yrs | −21% | 83 | Water conflict | 38m | $4,605 | $11k |
| Goa | 24% | 20+ yrs | −14% | 74 | Food emergency | 1.6m | $7,500 | $20k |
| Gujarat | 28% | 20+ yrs | −15% | 82 | Border war | 72m | $4,028 | $10k |
| Madhya Pradesh | 38% | 20+ yrs | −34% | 63 | Debt default | 87m | $1,885 | $3,539 |
| Jharkhand | 52% | 20 yrs | −35% | 58 | Food emergency | 40m | $1,325 | $2,396 |
| Delhi | 79% | 9 yrs | −20% | 73 | Food emergency | 22m | $6,091 | $13k |
| Assam | 88% | 14 yrs | −40% | 58 | Debt default | 36m | $1,917 | $3,383 |
| Uttar Pradesh | 88% | 13 yrs | −43% | 55 | Debt default | 240m | $1,229 | $1,989 |
| Uttarakhand | 94% | 12 yrs | −37% | 54 | Debt default | 12m | $3,333 | $6,315 |
| Jammu & Kashmir | 100% | 2 yrs | −69% | 34 | Debt default | 14.5m | $2,000 | $1,850 |
| Punjab | 100% | 8 yrs | −45% | 52 | Debt default | 31m | $2,871 | $4,991 |
| Himachal Pradesh | 100% | 5 yrs | −45% | 52 | Debt default | 7.5m | $3,333 | $5,940 |
| Sikkim | 100% | 3 yrs | −54% | 41 | Debt default | 0.7m | $8,143 | $11k |
| Arunachal Pradesh | 100% | 2 yrs | −68% | 35 | Debt default | 1.6m | $2,875 | $2,711 |
| Rajasthan | 100% | 9 yrs | −45% | 51 | Debt default | 82m | $2,256 | $3,507 |
| Bihar | 100% | 6 yrs | −62% | 39 | Debt default | 130m | $785 | $780 |
| Nagaland | 100% | 2 yrs | −65% | 35 | Debt default | 2.3m | $2,087 | $2,192 |
| Meghalaya | 100% | 4 yrs | −49% | 49 | Debt default | 3.4m | $1,618 | $2,460 |
| Manipur | 100% | 3 yrs | −64% | 34 | Debt default | 3.3m | $1,636 | $1,828 |
| Tripura | 100% | 4 yrs | −51% | 48 | Debt default | 4.2m | $2,286 | $3,435 |
| Mizoram | 100% | 2 yrs | −65% | 34 | Debt default | 1.3m | $2,769 | $2,897 |
How the model works
This is a deliberately simple model. It is meant to show which forces matter, not to predict what would happen.
- Starting point. Each state begins with its approximate 2023–24 population, economic output, debt, farm output and its net flow of money with the central government. It inherits a share of the national debt and splits India's foreign-exchange reserves.
- Day-one shocks. Transfers stop. Every new border adds trade friction, which is worse for landlocked countries because their exports must cross a neighbour. Each country must fund its own military, and more so on the Pakistan and China borders.
- Each year. A shared monsoon draw hits farm-heavy economies. Relations between neighbours drift, which sets how easily a country can trade, reach a port and get river water from upstream. Growth, debt, reserves and political stability update from those.
- Crises. A country defaults if debt passes 100 percent of GDP, or 85 percent with thin reserves. Its currency collapses if reserves fall below a month of imports. A drought becomes a food emergency when a country can't grow or buy enough food, and a water conflict when an upstream neighbour is hostile. Low stability means mass unrest. Hostile borders carry a small yearly risk of war.
- Many futures. The model runs 400 times with different random draws. The map, table and statistics show medians; the survival chart and the crisis cards show how often each country avoids or hits a crisis.
What it leaves out
The violence and migration of an actual breakup, which would likely be far worse than anything modelled here. New alliances or federations between neighbours. Foreign aid, IMF programs beyond a simple bailout, and how Pakistan, China and Bangladesh would respond. Currency unions, and the chance that the new countries simply reunite.
Sources for starting figures
Reserve Bank of India, Handbook of Statistics on Indian States; Fifteenth Finance Commission report and state budget documents; Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation state GDP series; population projections from the National Commission on Population. All values are rounded and some are estimates. Download the data: states.csv, results.csv, survival.csv, crises.json, future.json.